Polls Suggest Replacing Biden with Newsom Won’t Change Democrats’ Losing Streak

Recent polling data reveals a stark reality for the Democratic Party: even if President Joe Biden were replaced by California Governor Gavin Newsom, the party would still face significant challenges in the upcoming election. As the 2024 presidential race heats up, Democratic strategists are grappling with the implications of these findings.

According to a ZeroHedge report, despite Biden’s declining popularity and concerns about his age and fitness for office, replacing him with a younger, more dynamic candidate like Newsom doesn’t seem to improve the Democrats' prospects. Multiple polls indicate that the underlying issues plaguing the party extend beyond the figure at the helm​​.

The economy remains a critical factor driving voter sentiment. Inflation, cost of living increases, and dissatisfaction with economic policies are significantly impacting Biden’s approval ratings. A Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll highlighted that former President Trump leads Biden by 7 percentage points among voters aged 18-34 in key swing states. This demographic shift is particularly troubling for Democrats, who relied heavily on young voter turnout in previous elections​​.

Furthermore, a CNN report suggests that top Democrats and major donors are increasingly anxious about Biden’s campaign strategy and fundraising efforts. The slow pace and lack of grassroots enthusiasm have prompted some party insiders to consider alternatives, though the consensus remains that even a switch to Newsom would not guarantee electoral success​.

Polls from Emmerson College reveal that Trump holds a narrow edge over Biden in several critical swing states. For instance, in Arizona, Trump leads Biden by four points, and similar leads are seen in Georgia, Michigan, and Nevada. Even among independent voters, who are crucial for securing a win, Trump appears to have a favorable edge. The poll indicates that independent voters in states like Arizona, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina would be more likely to support Trump if Biden remains the Democratic candidate​​.

Moreover, Trump's recent conviction on multiple counts, which many assumed would damage his electoral chances, seems to have had the opposite effect. According to a Daily Mail poll cited by ZeroHedge, the conviction has bolstered Trump’s support among his base and even increased his favorability among some independent voters. This resilience is causing significant concern among Democratic strategists who hoped legal troubles would derail Trump’s campaign​​.

The sentiment that replacing Biden with Newsom or another candidate would not resolve these issues is reinforced by the consistency of voters' concerns about economic stability and cost of living, which remain the top priorities for a significant portion of the electorate. As the election approaches, it is clear that the Democratic Party must address these fundamental issues rather than rely on a change in leadership to secure voter confidence and turn the tide in their favor.

In summary, while the idea of replacing Biden with Newsom might seem like a potential strategy for rejuvenating the Democratic campaign, current polling data suggests that the party’s challenges are deeply rooted in broader economic concerns and voter dissatisfaction. Without addressing these critical issues, the Democrats may find it difficult to change the current trajectory​.

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